Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling's decision against running for governor in 2009 gives out-of-power Republicans a head start next year -- though not likely a very big one.

In deferring the GOP nomination to Attorney General Bob McDonnell and announcing for re-election to his current post, Bolling yesterday cautioned his party about the challenges ahead.

Bolling alluded to the influx of younger, ethnic and suburban voters who, since 2001, have fueled a Democratic comeback in Virginia with two victories for governor, a win for the U.S. Senate, gains in the General Assembly, and a stronger-than-expected turnout in the presidential primary last month.

Now angling to seek the governorship in 2013, Bolling -- invoking the color code of contemporary politics -- said he often is asked whether the state is shifting from Republican red to Democratic blue.

"It's a little bit of a purple state right now," Bolling said.

Bolling said he is opting for another term in his part-time, $36,321-a-year job to fulfill personal financial responsibilities, such as paying his mortgage, putting his children through college and building his young insurance agency.

His decision means two-thirds of the Republican ticket is locked down for 2009, leaving open only the nomination for attorney general.

At least four candidates are mentioned for that slot: Sens. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax, and Mark D. Obenshain, R-Harrisonburg, Del. Robert B. Bell, R-Albemarle, and former Del. Paul Harris, formerly of Albemarle.

In contrast, the Democratic ticket is, at best, unsettled. There's a two-man race for the gubernatorial nomination, and few prospects have emerged for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Protracted nomination fights can be costly in money and votes, though both parties have demonstrated -- Democrats in 1985 and Republicans in 1993 -- that they can survive primary and convention battles to win in the fall.

"Time will tell what the headwinds are like in 2009," said Bolling, a former state senator from heavily Republican Hanover County. "I think they're still out there in 2008 with the presidential campaign."

Bolling navigated these cross-currents in 2005, narrowly defeating former state Sen. Leslie Byrne of Fairfax County for lieutenant governor.

But if Gov. Timothy M. Kaine had run a stronger race against Republican former Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore, Byrne might have topped Bolling by the 1.2 percent by which he edged her.

McDonnell's victory margin over Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath, for attorney general was even narrower. That race was decided by 360 votes, Virginia's closest statewide election ever.

"It's a difficult climate in Virginia right now," said Chris Freund of the Family Foundation, a grass-roots conservative organization and force in GOP politics. "It's an inherited climate for candidates who didn't have a message in the past."

Deeds, now a candidate for governor -- whom Del. Brian J. Moran, D-Alexandria, plans to challenge -- said there still are vast swaths of the state that remain strongly Republican, including most of his rural district. But echoing Bolling, Deeds said Virginia is friendlier to Democrats than it was.

"Virginia is not changing as rapidly as some on my side would like," Deeds said. "But it's only going to get better."

McDonnell praised Bolling's decision and said it will promote unity within the party.

Bolling, too, said the GOP ticket is strengthened by the presence of two statewide incumbents: "Bob McDonnell and I are stronger running together than either of us would be running individually."

He said he made the final decision not to run about two weeks ago but had been leaning in that direction for several months.

Bolling said he wanted to wait until after the November election, but he decided to announce now to minimize distractions that could hurt the U.S. Senate and presidential campaigns in Virginia this fall.

Bolling is the second possible gubernatorial candidate to sit out the race. George Allen, a former governor and U.S. senator, said he will not run. Retiring 11th District Rep. Thomas M. Davis III has said he will not run for the U.S. Senate.
Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 649-6814 or jschapiro@timesdispatch.com.

Contact Tyler Whitley at (804) 649-6780 or twhitley@timesdispatch.com.