Economists are still debating whether we're in recession. Although we're not expecting an official answer anytime soon, the signs continue to mount. The most disturbing or compelling sign that we're in recession is the persistent decline in employment.

National employment has fallen each month since December 2007. Employment contracted by 438,000 jobs, or by 0.3 percent, through July 2008.

By comparison, employment fell by 1,012,000 during the first seven months of the 2001 recession and then continued to contract on a sporadic basis for about a year and a half after the recession ended. The total peak-to-trough decline was 2 percent.

Although the decline in 2008 has been much smaller, it remains likely that the employment figures will be revised down again.

What about Virginia? It fared better than the nation during the 2001 recession. The contraction in employment was two months shorter than in the nation, and the peak-to-trough drop was smaller, 1.6 percent.

So far, the latest slowdown has been similar. Employment in the commonwealth peaked in February -- a little later than in the nation -- and has contracted only 0.16 percent through June (latest data available) from its peak, compared with a 0.32 percent decline in the nation from its peak. Compared with a year ago, employment is virtually unchanged in the nation, compared with 0.2 percent growth in the state.

As always, the severity of the slowdown varies by region. Northern Virginia has not seen a persistent monthly slowdown in employment, but the year-over-year growth was only 0.7 percent in June, compared with twice that pace one year earlier.

Lynchburg, Harrisonburg and Hampton Roads all grew faster than Northern Virginia on a year-over-year basis in June, and none of those regions has experienced persistent monthly employment declines.

On the other hand, employment in Charlottesville, Blacksburg, Bristol and Richmond has reached a definite peak. Employment in Charlottesville contracted 2.5 percent since its peak, compared with a 0.11 percent contraction in Richmond.

On a year-over-year basis, all metro areas in the state continue to grow except for Blacksburg, which is down 1.1 percent.

Looking ahead, Virginia and Richmond are in for continued slow job growth. After growing 1.1 percent in 2007, we expect employment in the state to expand by only 0.5 percent in 2008 before picking up to 0.7 percent in 2009. The Richmond metro area is likely to slow to 0.6 percent employment growth in 2008 and 2009, after a strong 1.8 percent pace in 2007.