Virginia may not be a purple state yet. Even some top Democrats concede that the commonwealth's red -- make that Republican -- tendencies are strong. Sure, moderate Democrats such as Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Jim Webb can win here -- especially when their GOP opponents run terrible campaigns. But even these able Democrats found it impossible to garner more than 52 percent of the vote. A liberal like Barack Obama may find it impossible to reach 50.

The vast population of Northern Virginia should make Obama competitive statewide, but it's doubtful he will be able to run up the score against a centrist Republican with a remarkable military background. John McCain can be expected to romp in rural Virginia and fare better than recent Republicans in Hampton Roads and the Richmond suburbs. Remember that George Bush -- who offered less appeal than McCain for many mainstream suburbanites -- carried Virginia by 8 points in 2004. So it's not too surprising that the best poll so far in Virginia -- conducted by VCU's respected research center -- shows McCain with an 8-point lead.

McCain's recent trip to Richmond also gives anecdotal evidence that the Arizona senator is well-positioned here. He drew an enthusiastic crowd -- including some supporters of Mark Warner's Senate campaign -- and raised $800,000 in fewer than four hours. It's far too early to place the Old Dominion safely in the McCain column. We'll know more in the fall, when the Obama campaign will have to decide whether to commit substantial amounts of time and money to Virginia.

Republicans have taken the state for granted in presidential elections for years. They won't this time. Democrats have written it off for just as long and have not won here since 1964. This election will be different in at least one crucial respect, though. If Obama has problems in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire, West Virginia, and perhaps Pennsylvania, he may be the first Democrat in years who simply cannot afford to lose Virginia.