Doug Wilder lost his fig leaf.

The departure of Richmond Police Chief Rodney Monroe for Charlotte, N.C., denied Wilder the strongest argument for his re-election as mayor: safer streets.

Monroe's actual success was Wilder's perceived success -- a diversion from Wilder's failures. Law and order trumped all.

No one could ask, as Wilder once shrilly did in belittling his b?te blanc, governor-turned-senator Chuck Robb: "What has he done? Tell me three things."

Wilder, who announced Friday that he will not seek a second term, usually shapes events. Not this time. In deciding to become Charlotte's top cop, Monroe appeared to determine Wilder's fate.

With Monroe gone, Wilder seemed a goner.

If only because of his vanity and egoism, Wilder was not going to make a race he did not think he would win. Since entering elective politics in 1969, he has never lost at the polls -- not for the Virginia Senate, lieutenant governor or governor.

But in retiring now, Wilder, in effect, may be conceding defeat -- as he did in 1992 and 1994, junking short-lived bids for the presidency and U.S. Senate, respectively, that empirical and statistical data showed ending in flaming failure.

Had he run, Wilder had many cards to play.

The law shops, construction companies, info-tech firms and others doing business with the city would have had no choice but to invest in Wilder's candidacy. Wilder's bottom line -- who gave money to his campaign and didn't -- could affect theirs.

And assuming the mayoral field wasn't too crowded, Wilder would have two big advantages: name recognition and Barack Obama's coattails in a majority-black city. Wilder's celebrity -- he was the nation's first elective black governor -- added a certain zing to his early endorsement of Obama.

Despite such strategic and tactical pluses, there is still much for which Wilder would have to answer.

Wilder, not one to scrimp on creature comforts and the trappings of office, promised fiscal discipline. Instead, he delivered fat salaries for top aides, a $700-a-month car allowance for himself while whisked about in a city sedan by his $1.3 million-a-year security detail, and expensive court battles over mayoral power.

Wilder, a fast-on-his-feet trial lawyer innately disinclined to sweat the fine print, promised attention to detail. Instead, he allowed the Braves to quit Richmond after appearing to drop the ball in talks over a new stadium.

Usually petty and petulant to a fault, Wilder promised a cooperative approach to governance. Instead, he tried booting the School Board from City Hall and slowed a downtown arts complex pushed by the wealthy big shots who backed him for mayor.

In leading the charge for a return to a popularly elected mayor and becoming Richmond's first in more than a half-century, Wilder gave voice to demands for accountability in a municipal government that, at times, seemed dysfunctional.

But, as Wilder stands down, is it less so?

Perhaps the most telling measure of a reformer's tenure is whether a government operates effectively without him, not because of him.

The Wilder-centric universe that is City Hall -- already wobbling from the imminent exits of a school superintendent and police chief -- is now about to lose its sun.
Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 6496814 or jschapiro@timesdispatch.com. He provides news analysis each Friday at 8:33 a.m. on WCVE radio (88.9 FM).