You would think we'd have a clearer picture by now whether we're in recession. In some ways it seems to be the opposite.

Some economists remain adamant that the nation won't go into recession. They point out that real gross domestic product rose in the first quarter. They argue that the stimulus checks soon will provide consumers with extra buying power and that lower short-term interest rates will act as a stimulus as well.

Those who think the nation is in recession point out that real GDP is an average of the first quarter compared with an average of the fourth quarter. For that reason, it can miss a change in the monthly trend that began within the quarter.

The change in the components of real GDP between the last two quarters also is more indicative of a recession in the first quarter even though both quarters grew at an annual average 0.6 percent rate.

The pace of consumer spending slowed significantly in the first quarter -- spending on goods contracted and services more than offset the decline. Spending by firms on software, equipment and buildings contracted in the first quarter in contrast to a moderate pace of growth in the fourth quarter.

Residential investment declined at a slightly faster pace in the fourth quarter than in the first. Growth in net exports and government spending, however, offset some of the contracting sectors in the first quarter.

Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of GDP, will be a significant factor in determining whether second-quarter growth remains positive.

From my vantage point, consumers have a few forces weighing against them. With home prices falling in many regions around the nation, many homeowners no longer have the equity to tap for spending.

Employment has contracted each month since January and the unemployment rate has risen. Along with a sharp drop in consumer confidence, these trends suggest further caution in consumer spending.

Of course, consumers can borrow to maintain their standard of living, but the latest Federal Reserve survey of loan officers indicates that banks have made it harder to obtain loans.

Lastly, gasoline prices have continued to climb and put a dent in discretionary income. All these forces point to a consumer who probably will remain hamstrung for at least another quarter or two even with the stimulus check.

Businesses also are cautious, as indicated by the increase in layoffs and net decline in employment.

The U.S. economy is like an aircraft carrier -- it doesn't turn on a dime. Negative momentum is likely to continue to slow it down for the next quarter or two.

But even if real GDP does not contract for two quarters, it's clear that for all intents and purposes the economy has stalled, and most forecasters expect it to remain in that state for at least the second quarter, if not the third.