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Inflation a risk overseas, as well
50 countries show double-digit rates, according to report Morgan Stanley report finds 50 countries double-digit rates
 
Saturday, Jul 05, 2008 - 12:08 AM 
 
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By RACHEL BECK
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

NEW YORK -- There is nowhere to hide from inflation.

Prices in one in four countries, many of them in emerging markets, are accelerating at a double-digit pace. Research from Morgan Stanley finds their prices are rising at least 2.5 times faster than the annual U.S. inflation rate.

That should be a wake-up call for anyone counting on investments abroad to prop up their portfolios as U.S. stocks teeter on the edge of a bear market.

The U.S. economy has slowed to nearly a standstill in the past year because of the mounting inflation and the collapse in the housing and mortgage markets. Other industrialized countries have seen about a 2 percent average rate of growth while emerging economies have topped 7 percent.

That growth is being threatened by inflation. And remember: In the developing world, a larger portion of household expenditures tends to go to the most inflationary items -- food and fuel.

Food prices have jumped 39 percent from February 2007 to 2008, led by wheat, soybeans, corn and edible oils, according to the International Monetary Fund.

That hits residents of emerging markets much harder than those living in more advanced economies. People in countries such as Vietnam, Russia, Egypt and India put at least 30 percent of their total spending toward food, well above the 6 percent allotment for U.S. households, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture.

That's why Morgan Stanley economists Joachim Fels and Manoj Pradhan said they were "flabbergasted" by their findings that 50 countries had double-digit inflation rates. On that list were six of the 10 most populous countries in the world, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Russia. In total, those facing such pricing pressures accounted for 42 percent of the world population.

"In other words, close to 3 billion consumers are currently experiencing double-digit rates of price increases," they wrote in a note to clients.

Many emerging-market economies also link their currencies to the dollar, and because of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy stance right now, that has helped feed inflationary pressures.

 

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