For the first time in more than a decade, fewer Americans are expected to travel this Memorial Day weekend than did the year before, AAA officials said.

Not even in the spring of 2002, after Sept. 11, nor in 2006 after the big gasoline price rise that followed Hurricane Katrina, was a drop in Memorial Day travel projected, said Windy VanCuren, a spokeswoman for AAA Mid-Atlantic.

The auto and travel club estimates that 37.9 million Americans nationwide will travel more than 50 miles from home from May 23 to May 26. That forecast represents a drop of nearly 1 percent -- about 400,000 people -- from last year.

The auto club's projections are drawn from a quarterly survey of 2,000 U.S. adults conducted by the Travel Industry Association. No margin of error was given.

A combination of higher gasoline prices and a struggling economy can be blamed for the predicted drop in holiday travel, VanCuren said.

The average price of regular gasoline set records again yesterday: nationally at $3.78 per gallon, statewide at $3.69 and in the Richmond area at $3.71, a jump of 2 cents per gallon from Wednesday.

The gas cost for a 500-mile trip in a vehicle that gets 25 miles per gallon is just $13 more this year than last, VanCuren said. "People are not going to give up a trip for that."

Despite the small projected drop in travel, more than 12 percent of Americans plan to take a trip more than 50 miles from home, AAA noted.

Of the travelers, AAA said 83 percent, or 31.7 million people, will travel by automobile, a drop of 1 percent from last year. An additional 11 percent, or 4.35 million people, plan to fly, a drop of 0.5 percent. Slightly fewer than 2 million others intend to ride by train or some other form of transportation.

AAA projected no increase in travelers last Labor Day weekend and a slight drop in travel in Virginia. At that point gasoline averaged $2.61 per gallon.

If the trend of higher gasoline prices and lower travel persists, travel-dependent businesses could be affected, AAA warned.

The auto club will report its Memorial Day travel projections for Virginia next Wednesday.
Contact Greg Edwards at (804) 649-6390 or gedwards@timesdispatch.com.