This wobbly economy won't last forever.

Recovery will take time and likely will involve a shift in public policy, the way we live and how businesses operate, experts say.

Energy prices and an aging population will play a part.

Experts say rising unemployment and the housing slowdown are temporary and just part of the natural ebb and flow of the business cycle.

"Whenever most people are convinced we are really bad off and it's going to be like this forever, that's usually when [the economy] starts to get better," said Dean Croushore, an associate economics professor at the University of Richmond's Robins School of Business.

Within five years, housing prices should stabilize and jobs should return.

"By 2013, you should be feeling pretty good about economic growth," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist for Chmura Economics and Analytics in Richmond.

Inflation likely would level off to a safe 2 percent annual rate, well below the 5.6 percent reported for July because of higher transportation, food and energy prices.

Signs of a rebound in the housing market should come near the end of 2009, she said.

Jobs lost during the slowdown should return after that. By 2011, the economy should pick up speed followed by two years of economic growth, Chmura said.

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Predicting the nature of the economy is easier than predicting how it will perform, said Glen Hiemstra, a futurist author and speaker based in Washington state who founded Futurist.com, a Web site about topics related to the future.

"Energy is going to be an ongoing issue from now on," he said. "The No. 1 [economic] driver will be energy transition."

Where people live and what they eat may shift closer to home because of rising gasoline and diesel fuel prices. That means supporting a local economy -- where things are made, bought and sold within a few miles -- could become a priority, for its sustainability and friendliness to the environment.

Some manufacturing operations that moved overseas may come back because high transportation costs could make it more cost-effective to be closer to American consumers, said Clem Bezold, who, as chairman and founder of the Institute for Alternative Futures in Alexandria, tracks trends and forecasts the future.

New industries focused on relieving the demand pressures on oiland coal-based fuels could bloom. Solar-power and alternative-energy transportation likely will take on more of a role, he said.

At the same time, the retail industry could struggle as boomers -- the oldest of which will be 67 in five years -- age and move out of peak-spending years, only to be replaced by a smaller Generation X population, he said.

Large discount stores such as Wal-Mart and Target may see a boost in sales because of the lower prices they offer, but they also could be hit by the cost to ship items to stores. Local stores may find a niche if they can compete with the volume-pricing discounts by buying locally and avoiding transportation costs, Hiemstra said.

"The whole idea of global shipping is problematic because of the costs," he said. Businesses "will be looking for closer alternatives."

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Struck by the number of factors -- rising health-care costs, inflation and joblessness -- digging into people's wallets, Congress may take action.

Bezold predicts the changes could be dramatic enough to rival the New Deal programs enacted during the Great Depression. Or, one or two major policy revisions may take precedence over sweeping changes.

That could mean steps to create universal health care -- the U.S. is the only industrialized nation without national coverage -- and tighter banking regulations.

"What things are going to look like for working people really depends on what policies are put in place," said economist Heidi Shierholz, who works for the Economic Policy Institute in Washington. "I think right now we're sort of poised to make some changes that might help turn around that trend."

Increasing inflation and rising unemployment should be addressed to ease the burden on working-class families, she said.

The unemployment rate, which was 4 percent in 2000, has been creeping upward. The jobless rate peaked at 6 percent in 2003 and then began to fall, only to rise to 5.7 percent in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The late 1990s and early 2000s saw the dot-com bubble burst. Then there was the recent housing crunch.

Shierholz thinks the Federal Reserve System should create a "bubble watch" team to look for the next crash, though it will be difficult to predict.

One place to focus on is the energy market. Investments made in alternative-energy research and ventures could be the next investment bubble that rocks the economy.

Figuring out what or who will succeed is no easy feat, Hiemstra said.

"It's hard to identify when a bubble is going to burst," Chmura said. "There's more than just economics involved. There's psychology involved."

Economists often caution people not to take initial numbers or one set of data too seriously because it can create a perception that the economy is worse or better than it is. It often takes time to get a complete picture, Croushore said.

In five years, Chmura said, we could be on the cusp of another economic downturn.

"We'll most likely be sowing the seeds of the next recession," Chmura said. "We'll always have business cycles."

Contact Emily C. Dooley at (804) 649-6016 or edooley@timesdispatch.com.