More than 200,000 new voters have registered in Virginia since January, nearly 64 percent under the age of 35.

And with 12 weeks before Election Day, both parties are revving up for a big push in their get-out-the-vote efforts, including a heavy presence expected on college campuses.

As of Aug. 1, the State Board of Elections had logged 202,597 new registrations, but it's risky to draw conclusions as to what the numbers will mean in the November election.

Virginia voters do not register by party. And while Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has been credited with drawing more young voters into politics, young voters traditionally have been a less reliable voting bloc than older voters.

In a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday, Obama led Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee, 60 percent to 37 percent among Virginia voters ages 18 to 34. Overall, McCain led Obama 48 percent to 47 percent.

Virginia has not backed a Democratic nominee for president since 1964. In 2004, President Bush topped Democratic Sen. John Kerry in Virginia by eight percentage points.

"These additional voters guarantee Virginia will be closer than it's been before, but closing that entire gap in one election is tough to do," said Larry J. Sabato, University of Virginia political analyst.

Turnout was particularly strong among young voters in Virginia's Feb. 12 Democratic primary. A total of 134,968 voters ages 17 to 29 cast ballots in the Democratic primary, compared with 52,714 in the Republican primary, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

But analysts say young voters can make a difference in November only if they show up. Nationally, according to CIRCLE, 47 percent of voters ages 18 to 24 went to the polls in 2004, up from 36 percent in 2000.

"I think there's no doubt that youth are going to turn out at rates higher than in previous elections," said Quentin Kidd, an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University.

"The question is, is that turnout going to be so high that it alone affects the outcome of the election? I'm not willing to say that youth will turn out in such a way that they will shape the election."

Enthusiasm persists though, according to the Young Republican Federation of Virginia, which has added six new clubs in the past two months, including one in Petersburg. For the second year, the state's Young Republicans are holding a get-out-the-vote program for 21to 41-year-olds in the state.

Democrats in Virginia also have launched voter-outreach efforts, which will continue through the fall.

The GOP targets "young professionals" up to 41 years old, keeping in mind that the youngest voters might not turn out in large numbers, said Cristen Vehorn, chairwoman of the Greater Richmond Young Republicans.

"Nobody can bank on the youth vote, because the youth vote hasn't been reliable in the past," Vehorn said.

She balks at lumping young voters in with Democrats. Obama has an initial lead among younger voters, because at 47 he's viewed as young, but as voters study the issues, that edge will soften, she said.

"I think his candidacy is getting a whole lot of young people to vote -- but they're not going to vote for him."

And though youth participation has increased in the past couple of elections, thanks in part to youth-focused registration efforts, Nancy Rodrigues, secretary of the State Board of Elections, points out that every year thousands of 18-year olds become eligible to vote and register.

Some may register when they are 17, if they will turn 18 by the next general election.

"So this age group gives us our greatest pool for new voters," she said. "Also this age group is very mobile -- moving to a new state for a new job -- thus I am not surprised that they are the lion's share of the new voters."

Political analysts in the state say this election could be the closest in decades, but the outcome is unpredictable.

"I think it is very close, but it will be a massive upset if Obama does carry Virginia given our history," Sabato said.

He expects a "massive turnout" this November -- including young Democratic-leaning voters.

"It makes it closer, yes," he said. "It makes it a closer election, but it doesn't necessarily get you over the top if you're the Democrat."
Contact Olympia Meola at (804) 649-6812 or omeola@timesdispatch.com.