Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's presumed vice-presidential ambitions could remake Virginia politics -- perhaps to the detriment of fellow Democrats.

Should he go to Washington, Kaine would surrender the governorship to a ReRT-D
FIRST publican, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, possibly giving the retrenched GOP an early advantage in the 2009 election.

"People would feel comfortable with a Republican in the top spot," said House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, whose caucus next year will defend its slender, three-seat advantage.

Democrats, looking to extend a comeback that commenced in 2001, are divided on the impact of a Kaine national candidacy. Some welcome it as a boost for the home-state party; others worry it may make for new Republican momentum.

House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong, D-Henry, said a Kaine victory for vice president means "some benefits will come to Virginia."

But Sen. W. Roscoe Reynolds, D-Henry, hinted at the instability potentially triggered by a Kaine departure: "He's done a great job as governor; I hope he stays in the governorship."

The what-if of a Kaine vice-presidential bid is little more than speculation but has quickly become a distraction, one that threatens to complicate solutions for such issues as balancing the cash-strapped budget.

In departing Richmond for Washington, Kaine could leave for Bolling a budget that might be difficult to revise, said Griffith, possibly setting up another confrontation between the Republican-controlled House and Democrat-run Senate.

One thing is clear: Bolling apparently would be assured the GOP gubernatorial nomination if he completes Kaine's term.

Though Attorney General Bob McDonnell is the putative nominee and Bolling is seeking re-election to the No. 2 office, Republican strategists said McDonnell is prepared to defer to Bolling should he choose to seek a full four-year term.

Some Democrats said privately they perceive Bolling as a weaker candidate for governor than McDonnell. Though Bolling significantly outpolled McDonnell in 2005, the attorney general -- elected by 360 votes -- is seen as having amassed a broader record than the part-time lieutenant governor.

"We've always been confident we can beat either and we know it would be a help to have Vice President Kaine campaigning for us," said Jesse Ferguson, aide to Del. Brian J. Moran, D-Alexandria, a candidate for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Moran's rival, Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath, said it doesn't make much difference which Republican he faces next year.

"They're both capable people," Deeds, McDonnell's opponent in 2005, said of Bolling and the attorney general.

A vacancy for lieutenant governor, caused by Bolling's ascent to governor, would not have to be filled. The Virginia Constitution makes no provisions for picking a replacement.

"There are some vacancies that don't need to be filled, and this is one of them," said A.E. Dick Howard, a constitutional expert at the University of Virginia.

Bolling and McDonnell had little to say yesterday about the repercussions of a Kaine vice-presidential bid.

Asked if Kaine should resign as governor if selected as Barack Obama's running mate, Bolling said, "I would have no comment on that. I would defer to the governor's judgment."

McDonnell was out of town and not immediately available for comment.

However, his spokesman, J. Tucker Martin, said, "Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell are a united team. Beyond that, I'm not going to speculate about a hypothetical situation."
Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 649-6814 or jschapiro@timesdispatch.com.

Contact Tyler Whitley at (804) 649-6780 or twhitley@timesdispatch.com.

Staff writer Olympia Meola contributed to this report.