Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, R-11th, who once hoped to be the Republican nominee for Senate, will not attend this weekend's nominating convention in Richmond.

Davis, 59, says it's not a jab at anyone, noting, "I've got work to do." But the retiring congressman doesn't mince words about the Virginia GOP or its chances to beat Democrat Mark R. Warner in November.

"I don't know how you stop him. He's got all the money in the world. He's got the wind at his back. We've got a weak candidate," Davis said in an interview.

"I think we could have beat [likely Republican nominee] Jim Gilmore," Davis said, referring to his own campaign team. "Decidedly, he's weak if you look at the fundraising numbers."

Through May 11, Gilmore, a former governor, raised $984,063, according to the Federal Election Commission. Warner, another former governor, raised $6.4 million through March 31, according to the FEC.

A spokeswoman for Gilmore's campaign declined to comment for this story.

. . .

Davis, first elected to Congress in 1994, still has a chip on his shoulder about his falling out with the Virginia Republican Party.

In fact, the Northern Virginia centrist said the state GOP "gave me the middle finger."

"I have had over 100 bills passed," he said. "But anybody who compromises, you go back to your party base and you're an apostate. You're squishy. You're weak."

Davis and Rep. James P. Moran, D-8th, are taking a trip this week to examine Middle East sovereign wealth funds -- multibillion-dollar state-controlled investments. They are scheduled to return tomorrow, the day the Virginia GOP convention begins.

"The [Virginia GOP] didn't exactly roll out the welcome mat," Davis said.

Davis dropped his plans to run for the seat of retiring Sen. John W. Warner, R-Va., when the state GOP decided to hold a nominating convention rather than a primary.

At a convention, party activists select nominees. A primary would have been open to all of the state's more than 4 million voters.

"It wasn't personal," said Republican National Committeeman Morton Blackwell of Alexandria. "I think the party is better off when we run principled conservative candidates."

Davis has railed against this process and the politics of "values" voters he says it represents. In an hourlong interview, he called the state GOP out of touch, said he expects Mark Warner to win the Senate seat, and left the door open for a future Senate run himself.

But facing a convention in Richmond with the party's conservative base, Davis didn't like his chances of winning the Senate nomination.

"A convention restricts you to talk to 5,000 party activists where they ask you, 'OK, now if you're raped by an in-law and the mother's life was in danger, you would allow an abortion? Oh, well, you're not good enough for me.' That's what it comes down to. It's ridiculous."

. . .

Davis said the party's decision to have a nominating convention, instead of a more inclusive primary, is emblematic of its disconnect with the fastest-growing part of the state -- Northern Virginia -- and, by extension, moderate voters who are turned off by values-based politics.

"People aren't paying higher gas prices because somebody had an abortion or registered a gun," he said.

University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said the party's convention decision clearly was directed at Davis.

"The Virginia Republican Party would rather be right than be president, senator or governor, and I mean 'right' in an ideological sense," Sabato said.

Davis, who served for four years as the chairman of the Republican congressional campaign committee, said that aside from a few party leaders, the state GOP is missing a chance to be Virginia's dominant party.

"My argument to the downstate folks: Henrico and Chesterfield [counties] are becoming more like Northern Virginia than they are like the rest of the state," Davis said.

"They don't seem to understand that if you come out of [Northern Virginia] down [200,000 votes], it doesn't matter. You can't make it up," he said.

Davis still is open to a future Senate run.

"He's got one issue," Davis said of Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., referring to the war in Iraq.

So, in 2012 would Davis take on Webb, with whom he used to coach Little League?

"You don't rule it out, but it's really not in the back of my mind," he said. "Somebody will take [Webb] out."

Webb largely has ignored such criticism.

"I don't know what Tom Davis' issue is," Webb said.
Contact Neil H. Simon at (202) 662-7669 or nsimon@mediageneral.com.