Former Gov. Mark R. Warner will launch his campaign for the U.S. Senate today with a commanding lead in the polls and the money race.

The Republicans will not select their candidate until the end of this month. Political observers say either former Gov. Jim Gilmore or Del. Robert G. Marshall of Prince William would be a heavy underdog against Democrat Warner, who left office in January 2006 with an approval rating of nearly 70 percent.

"Short of a scandal or a 'macaca moment,'" Warner should win the race easily, said Quentin Kidd, a political-science professor at Christopher Newport University. He was referring to a verbal gaffe by Republican George Allen that contributed to his 2006 Senate loss to Jim Webb.

The winner in the Nov. 4 election will succeed Sen. John W. Warner, a Republican who is retiring after five terms in the Senate.

Mark Warner, 53, Virginia's governor from 2002 to 2006, is stressing bipartisanship, saying he would try to build a coalition of 10 to 12 "radical centrists" in the Senate.

Warner led Gilmore 55 percent to 39 percent in an April 1 telephone poll of Virginia voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports, an independent polling operation that publishes online.

Warner, who has deep pockets of his own that he can use to self-finance a campaign, if needed, raised $2.5 million in the first quarter. Gilmore raised just less than $400,000, while Marshall raised $51,770.

Warner, who made a fortune from investing early in the cell-phone business, estimated his assets at between $88 million and $390 million in a February financial disclosure report filed with the U.S. Senate Committee on Ethics.

Richmond political consultant and City Council candidate Paul Goldman, who helped manage Warner's campaign for governor in 2001, said Warner will not ignore Gilmore if he is the Republican candidate.

"He will take Gilmore seriously. He wants to win big," Goldman said.

. . .

So far in the campaign, Warner has focused on issues such as energy policy -- calling for investments in renewable energy -- and health care. "We must make sure every American has access to affordable, universal health-care coverage," he said.

On the war in Iraq, Warner says lawmakers need to work with military leaders "to develop a sensible plan to start to bring our brave troops home."

Steve Farnsworth, a political analyst at the University of Mary Washington, said the discussion of issues could feature a rerun of past disputes.

Gilmore, who preceded Warner as governor, says Warner promised not to raise taxes and then promoted a $1.4 billion tax increase once he was in office. Warner says he had to raise taxes when he succeeded Gilmore because Gilmore left the state's finances in disarray.

"Mark Warner's years as governor were built on finding objections to the way Jim Gilmore governed," Farnsworth said. "To a significant degree, this campaign will be back to the'90s."

Gilmore and Marshall are aggressive campaigners. Gilmore, at the annual Wakefield Shad Planking on April 16, signaled that he would attack Warner on a number of issues, including taxes, the war in Iraq, energy policy and trustworthiness.

Christopher Newport's Kidd said Sen. John McCain's presence on the ballot as the GOP presidential nominee could help Republicans close the gap, but not enough to beat Warner.

. . .

Warner scheduled 11 announcement events between today and Wednesday, beginning with a "pre-launch" dinner with Democratic activists in Abingdon, where he began his successful campaign for governor in 2001.

He was scheduled to fly to the state's major media markets tomorrow, with a scheduled stop in downtown Richmond at 3 p.m. at the Virginia BioTechnology Research Park, 800 E. Leigh St.

Some Democrats say the biggest problem Warner faces is overconfidence on the part of Democratic voters.

Asked Friday if there is any way Warner could lose, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine said: "Mark would say, 'Of course,' and that's why he's out there [campaigning]. You're going to see a very hyperkinetic schedule for Mark Warner, and he's not taking anything for granted between now and Election Day."

George Burke of Fairfax, the 11th District Democratic chairman, said competitive congressional races in the 10th and 11th districts in Northern Virginia will assure that Democrats are energized.

Evelyn Morris-Harris of Chesterfield County, chairwoman of the Virginia Democrats' black caucus, said Warner should ignore the expected Gilmore attacks.

"Let his record speak for itself," she said.
Contact Tyler Whitley at (804) 649-6780 or twhitley@timesdispatch.com.

Staff writer Jim Nolan contributed to this report.