Richmond boosters have 200,123 reasons to feel optimistic about the city's future.

That figure is the estimated 2007 population for the city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The estimate -- and it's just that -- reverses a downward trend and is the first time the figure has crept above 200,000 since 1995.

The city's 2000 population was 197,790. Estimates since then have dropped below 193,000.

"It's vitally important," said Rachel O. Flynn, Richmond's director of community development.

"When you think about it, we're the only country in the world that has abandoned our cities and actually seen decreases in population, and now we've come full circle. . . . It builds confidence in our vitality, and hope for the future."

"This is great news for the city," said Jack Berry, executive director of Venture Richmond, which promotes downtown. "It indicates the city's becoming a more attractive place to live."

He said the urban lifestyle is attracting young professionals and empty nesters to a downtown with 6,000-plus residents.

John V. Moeser of the Bonner Center for Civic Engagement at the University of Richmond said the latest census figure breaks a long-term decline.

"People have been talking for some time about the significant influx of people who are living downtown and on the river," said Moeser, professor emeritus of urban studies at Virginia Commonwealth University. "One has to assume it's that influx that's kicked up the census to that level."

Some demographers remain skeptical. But the latest estimate is a potent weapon in Mayor L. Douglas Wilder's re-election arsenal.

Sure, rancor and chaos reign at City Hall, as the mayor dukes it out with the City Council and School Board. But Wilder -- whose office did not return a phone call seeking comment -- can point to safer streets, fewer homicides, and now, a city that appears to be reviving rather than flat-lining.

It's a powerful message.

Moeser traced Richmond population decline to America's suburban boom at the end of World War II.

Richmond's population peaked at about 250,000 after the 1970 annexation of 47,000 Chesterfield residents. But almost immediately, the city began hemorrhaging residents. Richmond's biggest population decline, 13 percent, was between 1970 and 1980 -- a turbulent period marked by busing to achieve school integration and, when that failed, an attempt to consolidate the city school district with those in Chesterfield and Henrico.

Moeser said demographers were expecting a population increase amid recent signs that people were moving downtown and on the riverfront.

Test scores have improved in Richmond's schools, but homeowners still balk at enrolling their children. The counties still grow at a much faster clip than Richmond. But with gasoline prices approaching $4 a gallon, suburban living has lost some luster.

"People want walkable neighborhoods, the convenience of living close to work and the authentic architectural character that Richmond has," Berry said. "The city used to be a tough sell. That's just not the case in the same way that it used to be."

It remains to be seen whether this modest but powerfully symbolic increase can be a successful sales pitch for Wilder.
Contact Michael Paul Williams at (804) 649-6815 or mwilliams@timesdispatch.com.