Central Virginia enjoyed a 2.5 percent drop in major reported crime last year, even as the region's population grew by at least that much.

A total of 39,764 major offenses were reported in 2007 in the 24 localities that make up the greater metropolitan region, down from the 40,797 offenses reported the year before, according to state police data analyzed by The Times-Dispatch.

The dip in crime, combined with population increases in nearly every locality, caused the region's per capita crime rate to fall from 34.5 crimes per 1,000 residents in 2006 to 33 crimes per thousand in 2007.

"When you look nationally, that's pretty low -- without a doubt," said John D. Reitzel, an assistant professor of criminal justice studies at Virginia Commonwealth University's L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs.

"And it's getting better with [the city of] Richmond's sustained crime drop," added Reitzel, who reviewed the crime figures at the newspaper's request. "A large chunk of any change is driven by what's happening in Richmond, because that's where a lot of the crime is, or at least concentrations of it."

Richmond, Reitzel added, "is obviously a much safer place than in years past," because in addition to a sizable drop in homicides, "you're seeing similar trends across all the violent-crime categories and property crimes. And this has been going over a number of years now."

Richmond was the only jurisdiction among the 24 localities to report decreases in all eight major categories of crime: homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, vehicle theft and arson.

"I get calls from other police departments, and they say, 'Man, what are you guys doing?'" said Richmond police Maj. John Buckovich, who oversees the city's 1st and 2nd precincts.

The department's success stems from a variety of things, Buckovich said, including sector policing, community engagement and a problem-solving approach to fighting crime that uses focus-mission teams to more intensely target specific areas and individuals.

12 of 24 areas saw increases

Although the overall regional numbers were positive last year -- violent crime and property crime each fell by about 2.5 percent -- Reitzel noted they mask the fact that 12 of the 24 localities experienced overall crime increases. Eleven localities saw crime drop and one remained unchanged.

The numbers show large disparities in crime across the region.

"The risk for people is very different depending on where they live in the area," said Reitzel, who specializes in policing, race, ethnicity, crime and the distribution of justice.

Petersburg had highest rate

For example, Petersburg ranked as central Virginia's most dangerous place to live in terms of the number of the crimes for its size. The city recorded 93 offenses per 1,000 residents in 2007, surpassing Richmond.

"You look at Petersburg and then you look at Richmond, and they're seemingly going in opposite directions," Reitzel said.

Several phone calls last week to Petersburg Police Chief John Dixon III, who was appointed in late September, went unanswered. Esther Hyatt, the department's spokeswoman, said the chief and his staff had nothing to say about last year's figures because "they weren't there when they were generated."

However, Hyatt noted that since Dixon's arrival, the department has launched a data-driven process that more intensely analyzes crime data and then targets any trends or problem areas with enforcement. "We're definitely seeing a decline in the time it takes to clear cases," she said.

Hopewell, Colonial Heights and Ashland rounded out the top five with the largest numbers of crime per capita.

Charles City County safest

On the opposite end of the scale, Charles City County ranked as the region's safest place to live, with a crime rate of only 4.2 offenses per 1,000 residents.

"I do believe that we have one of the safest communities in [the] Richmond metropolitan area, being that I've worked here over 11 years and I've lived here almost all my life," said Charles City Sheriff Javier J. Smith, who was elected in November. "And as a road officer, day in and day out, I've [seen] exactly what type of criminal activity we had in our community."

However, Smith said he didn't feel comfortable commenting on the county's favorable crime rate because it occurred before his administration took office in January.

Behind Charles City, King William County ranked as the region's second-safest community, with 7.2 crimes per 1,000 residents, followed by Cumberland, King and Queen and Powhatan counties.

Richmond's suburbs mixed

Closer to Richmond's core, Henrico County recorded a 1 percent drop in reported crime last year while Chesterfield and Hanover counties experienced slight increases.

Chesterfield, which has the region's largest population, saw major crime climb less than 1 percent. Even so, the county's per capita crime rate remained at 28 offenses per 1,000 residents when factoring in population growth.

Hanover's 5.8 percent rise in major crime was blunted, however, by a growing population that kept the per capita crime rate at 12 offenses per 1,000 residents.

Henrico's crime numbers dropped for the third year in a row, and last year's decline followed a comparable drop in calls for police service, noted Henrico Police Chief H.W. Stanley Jr. "I think that tells us, too, that crime is down," he said.

Crime spilling into counties?

Although more study would be needed, Reitzel said increases in certain crimes such as robberies in Chesterfield and Henrico last year "might suggest spillover" at their borders with Richmond.

"It's really one of those things that's hard to measure," Reitzel said. "But because Henrico and Chesterfield surround Richmond, encompassing it completely, there's going to be a relationship between those areas at the borders."

"So if Richmond changes its [policing] policies, especially in some neighborhoods where there are borders, some of that crime might be just moving across the line, so to speak," he added. "Because it's a natural way that motivated offenders will change their routines to avoid police."

Tri-Cities' crime mostly up

Major crime in the five localities that make up the Tri-Cities area rose across the board except in Hopewell.

What's made the difference in Hopewell has been more citizen involvement in reporting crime and the hiring of a crime analyst, who has helped police identify crime trends and locations that can be more effectively targeted by police, said Hopewell police Maj. Ray Baxley.

"We have started redeploying our personnel based on those crime trends," Baxley said, "and that has helped us tremendously in lowering that [crime] rate during that time period."

"It's always nice to know that your crime figures are coming down," Baxley added, "and it's also nice to be able to point to what's causing those figures to come down."
Contact Mark Bowes at (804) 649-6450 or mbowes@timesdispatch.com.