For the best part of two centuries, United States relations with China have been built on trade.

But as to the future, "there are no guarantees here at all," said Craig Canning, a historian at the College of William and Mary.

U.S.-China trade began in 1784, when the ship Empress of China set sail from New York, bound for Canton -- now Guangzhou -- with a cargo of fur and ginseng, prized in Asia for its healing properties.

"It turned a handsome profit," Canning said. "And right away, other Americans went out to seek their fortune."

China scholar Canning spoke last night to about 35 people with the World Affairs Council of Greater Richmond at the SunTrust Building in the downtown financial district.

With interruptions -- notably the Maoist era, when commerce between the two countries was practically nonexistent -- "trade and economic interests were what primarily drove U.S.-China relations," Canning said.

Since 1979, when the U.S. formally recognized China, the Asian giant's economy has grown astonishingly as has its trade with the U.S.

"They go hand in hand," Canning said in an interview before his talk.

The United States' commerce with China amounted to $386.7 billion last year, he said, and the U.S. is China's largest single-nation customer.

China has become Virginia's second-largest export destination behind Canada, according to the Virginia Economic Development Partnership. Virginia exports to China last year totaled $1.1 billion, a 17 percent increase over the year before.

With Sino-American trade exploding in the 21st century in quantity and complexity, "we're to some extent in uncharted waters," Canning said.

But China -- with the world's largest population, its demographic diversity, its huge territory, its millennia of proud history -- is changing faster now than it ever has, at a time when it is more involved with the world at large than it has ever been.

"I'd anticipate that, at least for the short term, what you see is what you get, barring some real catastrophe that shakes [China's] social and political foundations to the very roots," he said.

Still, Canning said, "It's a very volatile time."

He cautioned both nations to be wary of recklessly politicizing their relations -- with potentially disastrous results.

"So many lives are involved here," Canning said. "The stakes are enormous."
Contact Peter Bacqué at (804) 649-6813 or pbacque@timesdispatch.com.