With one word -- no -- Tim Kaine could end the overwrought musings about his presumed vice-presidential ambitions. Because he hasn't, assume that he -- unlike Mark Warner and Jim Webb -- is hot to trot with Barack Obama.

A naif on diplomacy, defense and the national economy, Kaine wouldn't add much to a Democratic ticket led by another kid. Besides, Kaine's popularity and record at home are underwhelming.

And there's the argument made by Democrats and Republicans that Obama, because he'll likely spend a ton more than the $3 million John McCain apparently is earmarking for Virginia, could carry this purple state without Kaine.

A Kaine vice presidency -- puh-leese! -- would not only change the lineup here, it could lead to a realignment. In Virginia, departures and death have done just that at least three times over the past 75 years.

The 1933 appointment of Harry F. Byrd Sr. to the U.S. Senate seat of Claude Swanson -- he was FDR's first Navy secretary -- solidified Byrd's status for three decades as conservative Democratic boss.

The death in 1971 of Lt. Gov. Sarge Reynolds cost Democrats a glittery moderate and a likely win for governor in 1973. Liberal Henry Howell won a special election for LG and promptly led Democrats into the wilderness.

In 1978, Republican U.S. Senate nominee Dick Obenshain, a conservative icon, died in a plane crash. The victory of moderate stand-in John Warner helped split the GOP into warring camps.

History may be lost on Kaine. Headlines cloud one's judgment, especially when one's name is in them. The latest to plump Kaine for veep: Terry McAullife, former Democratic national chairman.

Even in come-here-dominated, 21st-century Virginia, the governorship remains, as Mills Godwin intoned, "no higher honor." No governor has left office before completing his term since the four-years-and-you're-out rule was adopted in 1852.

Besides, it's bad manners to put ambition ahead of obligation. Ask Doug Wilder. His presidential bid in the early 1990s sent his numbers into the sewer.

Kaine would surrender the key to the kingdom -- the governorship -- to a Republican, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. He's now running for re-election but likely would seek a full term as governor. GOP whisperings suggest that Bob McDonnell, current gubernatorial nominee-in-waiting, would defer to Bolling, run again as attorney general and take the party's top spot in 2013.

Packaging theirs as a seasoned slate, Republicans would need only a candidate for lieutenant governor -- and there are plenty.

Bolling might have an edge for governor because of voter fatigue. Virginians put up with an election every year but may not tolerate three governors over four years: Kaine in'05, Bolling in'08 and pick one in'09.

Governor Bolling also could thwart Kaine's unfinished business: kicking out the House Republican majority. Bolling could finesse the 2011 redistricting, extending GOP legislative power for another decade.

And that may have Virginia Commonwealth University rethinking Kaine as its next president. Why risk its slice of the state budget to more shoving between Kaine and Republicans?

Then the only place Kaine could get a job is an Obama White House. Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 649
6814 or jschapiro@timesdispatch.com. Watch his video column Thursdays on inRich.com. Listen to his analysis Fridays at 8:33 a.m. on WCVE radio (88.9 FM).