ARLINGTON -- Strong support in the Tidewater area won't be enough to win Virginia, John McCain acknowledged yesterday. He said he still has "a lot of work to do" to keep Virginia in the Republican column this fall.

"I do not take it lightly," the likely Republican presidential nominee said of Virginia and its 13 electoral votes. "I watched the results of recent elections in this state, so I do have a lot of work to do," he added at a news conference.

Democrats have won the past two elections for governor and unseated a Republican for a Senate seat in 2006.

But the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

A McCain strategy memo released online last week counted Virginia as one of 17 "solidly Republican" states. But University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato called that laughable.

"That is a pure bluff. Nobody buys it," he said. "They are thinking in terms of a 2004 electorate. They are going to get a very different and larger electorate in 2008."

The biggest changes, Sabato said, will be a huge black turnout and lopsided fundraising in favor of Sen. Barack Obama, the probable Democratic nominee.

Big Obama ad buys in Virginia could force McCain to come back to the state more often than he would like, Sabato said.

Contact Neil H. Simon at (202) 662-7669 or nsimon@mediageneral.com.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.